From e398e8541651f787fae3e0f26ec1a3f68fd09c1f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Alexander Nozik Date: Sat, 17 Oct 2020 15:57:06 +0300 Subject: [PATCH] Initial commit --- .gitignore | 8 + build.gradle.kts | 39 ++++ gradle.properties | 1 + gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.jar | Bin 0 -> 58694 bytes gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.properties | 5 + gradlew | 183 ++++++++++++++++++ gradlew.bat | 103 ++++++++++ settings.gradle.kts | 3 + .../ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Behavior.kt | 34 ++++ .../sim/epidemics/DefaultEpidemicsModel.kt | 98 ++++++++++ .../ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Subject.kt | 51 +++++ .../kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/main.kt | 26 +++ .../mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/visualization.kt | 40 ++++ 13 files changed, 591 insertions(+) create mode 100644 .gitignore create mode 100644 build.gradle.kts create mode 100644 gradle.properties create mode 100644 gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.jar create mode 100644 gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.properties create mode 100644 gradlew create mode 100644 gradlew.bat create mode 100644 settings.gradle.kts create mode 100644 src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Behavior.kt create mode 100644 src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/DefaultEpidemicsModel.kt create mode 100644 src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Subject.kt create mode 100644 src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/main.kt create mode 100644 src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/visualization.kt diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4bdad0c --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitignore @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +.idea/ +*.iws +out/ +.gradle +build/ + + +!gradle-wrapper.jar \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/build.gradle.kts b/build.gradle.kts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5129438 --- /dev/null +++ b/build.gradle.kts @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +import org.jetbrains.kotlin.gradle.tasks.KotlinCompile + +plugins { + kotlin("jvm") version "1.4.10" + application +} + +group = "ru.mipt.npm" +version = "1.0-SNAPSHOT" + +repositories { + jcenter() + mavenCentral() +} + +dependencies { + implementation("kscience.plotlykt:plotlykt-server:0.2.0") { + exclude(module = "kotlinx-io") + } + + implementation("org.apache.commons:commons-math3:3.6.1") + + + testImplementation(kotlin("test-junit5")) + testImplementation("org.junit.jupiter:junit-jupiter-api:5.6.0") + testRuntimeOnly("org.junit.jupiter:junit-jupiter-engine:5.6.0") +} + +tasks.test { + useJUnitPlatform() +} + +tasks.withType() { + kotlinOptions.jvmTarget = "11" +} + +application { + mainClassName = "ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics.MainKt" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/gradle.properties b/gradle.properties new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7fc6f1f --- /dev/null +++ b/gradle.properties @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +kotlin.code.style=official diff --git a/gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.jar b/gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.jar new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..490fda8577df6c95960ba7077c43220e5bb2c0d9 GIT binary patch literal 58694 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b/gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.properties new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a4b4429 --- /dev/null +++ b/gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.properties @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +distributionBase=GRADLE_USER_HOME +distributionPath=wrapper/dists +distributionUrl=https\://services.gradle.org/distributions/gradle-6.3-bin.zip +zipStoreBase=GRADLE_USER_HOME +zipStorePath=wrapper/dists diff --git a/gradlew b/gradlew new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2fe81a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/gradlew @@ -0,0 +1,183 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env sh + +# +# Copyright 2015 the original author or authors. +# +# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); +# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. +# You may obtain a copy of the License at +# +# https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 +# +# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software +# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, +# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. +# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and +# limitations under the License. +# + +############################################################################## +## +## Gradle start up script for UN*X +## +############################################################################## + +# Attempt to set APP_HOME +# Resolve links: $0 may be a link +PRG="$0" +# Need this for relative symlinks. +while [ -h "$PRG" ] ; do + ls=`ls -ld "$PRG"` + link=`expr "$ls" : '.*-> \(.*\)$'` + if expr "$link" : '/.*' > /dev/null; then + PRG="$link" + else + PRG=`dirname "$PRG"`"/$link" + fi +done +SAVED="`pwd`" +cd "`dirname \"$PRG\"`/" >/dev/null +APP_HOME="`pwd -P`" +cd "$SAVED" >/dev/null + +APP_NAME="Gradle" +APP_BASE_NAME=`basename "$0"` + +# Add default JVM options here. You can also use JAVA_OPTS and GRADLE_OPTS to pass JVM options to this script. +DEFAULT_JVM_OPTS='"-Xmx64m" "-Xms64m"' + +# Use the maximum available, or set MAX_FD != -1 to use that value. +MAX_FD="maximum" + +warn () { + echo "$*" +} + +die () { + echo + echo "$*" + echo + exit 1 +} + +# OS specific support (must be 'true' or 'false'). +cygwin=false +msys=false +darwin=false +nonstop=false +case "`uname`" in + CYGWIN* ) + cygwin=true + ;; + Darwin* ) + darwin=true + ;; + MINGW* ) + msys=true + ;; + NONSTOP* ) + nonstop=true + ;; +esac + +CLASSPATH=$APP_HOME/gradle/wrapper/gradle-wrapper.jar + +# Determine the Java command to use to start the JVM. +if [ -n "$JAVA_HOME" ] ; then + if [ -x "$JAVA_HOME/jre/sh/java" ] ; then + # IBM's JDK on AIX uses strange locations for the executables + JAVACMD="$JAVA_HOME/jre/sh/java" + else + JAVACMD="$JAVA_HOME/bin/java" + fi + if [ ! -x "$JAVACMD" ] ; then + die "ERROR: JAVA_HOME is set to an invalid directory: $JAVA_HOME + +Please set the JAVA_HOME variable in your environment to match the +location of your Java installation." + fi +else + JAVACMD="java" + which java >/dev/null 2>&1 || die "ERROR: JAVA_HOME is not set and no 'java' command could be found in your PATH. + +Please set the JAVA_HOME variable in your environment to match the +location of your Java installation." +fi + +# Increase the maximum file descriptors if we can. +if [ "$cygwin" = "false" -a "$darwin" = "false" -a "$nonstop" = "false" ] ; then + MAX_FD_LIMIT=`ulimit -H -n` + if [ $? -eq 0 ] ; then + if [ "$MAX_FD" = "maximum" -o "$MAX_FD" = "max" ] ; then + MAX_FD="$MAX_FD_LIMIT" + fi + ulimit -n $MAX_FD + if [ $? -ne 0 ] ; then + warn "Could not set maximum file descriptor limit: $MAX_FD" + fi + else + warn "Could not query maximum file descriptor limit: $MAX_FD_LIMIT" + fi +fi + +# For Darwin, add options to specify how the application appears in the dock +if $darwin; then + GRADLE_OPTS="$GRADLE_OPTS \"-Xdock:name=$APP_NAME\" \"-Xdock:icon=$APP_HOME/media/gradle.icns\"" +fi + +# For Cygwin or MSYS, switch paths to Windows format before running java +if [ "$cygwin" = "true" -o "$msys" = "true" ] ; then + APP_HOME=`cygpath --path --mixed "$APP_HOME"` + CLASSPATH=`cygpath --path --mixed "$CLASSPATH"` + JAVACMD=`cygpath --unix "$JAVACMD"` + + # We build the pattern for arguments to be converted via cygpath + ROOTDIRSRAW=`find -L / -maxdepth 1 -mindepth 1 -type d 2>/dev/null` + SEP="" + for dir in $ROOTDIRSRAW ; do + ROOTDIRS="$ROOTDIRS$SEP$dir" + SEP="|" + done + OURCYGPATTERN="(^($ROOTDIRS))" + # Add a user-defined pattern to the cygpath arguments + if [ "$GRADLE_CYGPATTERN" != "" ] ; then + OURCYGPATTERN="$OURCYGPATTERN|($GRADLE_CYGPATTERN)" + fi + # Now convert the arguments - kludge to limit ourselves to /bin/sh + i=0 + for arg in "$@" ; do + CHECK=`echo "$arg"|egrep -c "$OURCYGPATTERN" -` + CHECK2=`echo "$arg"|egrep -c "^-"` ### Determine if an option + + if [ $CHECK -ne 0 ] && [ $CHECK2 -eq 0 ] ; then ### Added a condition + eval `echo args$i`=`cygpath --path --ignore --mixed "$arg"` + else + eval `echo args$i`="\"$arg\"" + fi + i=`expr $i + 1` + done + case $i in + 0) set -- ;; + 1) set -- "$args0" ;; + 2) set -- "$args0" "$args1" ;; + 3) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" ;; + 4) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" ;; + 5) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" "$args4" ;; + 6) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" "$args4" "$args5" ;; + 7) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" "$args4" "$args5" "$args6" ;; + 8) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" "$args4" "$args5" "$args6" "$args7" ;; + 9) set -- "$args0" "$args1" "$args2" "$args3" "$args4" "$args5" "$args6" "$args7" "$args8" ;; + esac +fi + +# Escape application args +save () { + for i do printf %s\\n "$i" | sed "s/'/'\\\\''/g;1s/^/'/;\$s/\$/' \\\\/" ; done + echo " " +} +APP_ARGS=`save "$@"` + +# Collect all arguments for the java command, following the shell quoting and substitution rules +eval set -- $DEFAULT_JVM_OPTS $JAVA_OPTS $GRADLE_OPTS "\"-Dorg.gradle.appname=$APP_BASE_NAME\"" -classpath "\"$CLASSPATH\"" org.gradle.wrapper.GradleWrapperMain "$APP_ARGS" + +exec "$JAVACMD" "$@" diff --git a/gradlew.bat b/gradlew.bat new file mode 100644 index 0000000..62bd9b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/gradlew.bat @@ -0,0 +1,103 @@ +@rem +@rem Copyright 2015 the original author or authors. +@rem +@rem Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); +@rem you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. +@rem You may obtain a copy of the License at +@rem +@rem https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 +@rem +@rem Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software +@rem distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, +@rem WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. +@rem See the License for the specific language governing permissions and +@rem limitations under the License. +@rem + +@if "%DEBUG%" == "" @echo off +@rem ########################################################################## +@rem +@rem Gradle startup script for Windows +@rem +@rem ########################################################################## + +@rem Set local scope for the variables with windows NT shell +if "%OS%"=="Windows_NT" setlocal + +set DIRNAME=%~dp0 +if "%DIRNAME%" == "" set DIRNAME=. +set APP_BASE_NAME=%~n0 +set APP_HOME=%DIRNAME% + +@rem Resolve any "." and ".." in APP_HOME to make it shorter. +for %%i in ("%APP_HOME%") do set APP_HOME=%%~fi + +@rem Add default JVM options here. You can also use JAVA_OPTS and GRADLE_OPTS to pass JVM options to this script. +set DEFAULT_JVM_OPTS="-Xmx64m" "-Xms64m" + +@rem Find java.exe +if defined JAVA_HOME goto findJavaFromJavaHome + +set JAVA_EXE=java.exe +%JAVA_EXE% -version >NUL 2>&1 +if "%ERRORLEVEL%" == "0" goto init + +echo. +echo ERROR: JAVA_HOME is not set and no 'java' command could be found in your PATH. +echo. +echo Please set the JAVA_HOME variable in your environment to match the +echo location of your Java installation. + +goto fail + +:findJavaFromJavaHome +set JAVA_HOME=%JAVA_HOME:"=% +set JAVA_EXE=%JAVA_HOME%/bin/java.exe + +if exist "%JAVA_EXE%" goto init + +echo. +echo ERROR: JAVA_HOME is set to an invalid directory: %JAVA_HOME% +echo. +echo Please set the JAVA_HOME variable in your environment to match the +echo location of your Java installation. + +goto fail + +:init +@rem Get command-line arguments, handling Windows variants + +if not "%OS%" == "Windows_NT" goto win9xME_args + +:win9xME_args +@rem Slurp the command line arguments. +set CMD_LINE_ARGS= +set _SKIP=2 + +:win9xME_args_slurp +if "x%~1" == "x" goto execute + +set CMD_LINE_ARGS=%* + +:execute +@rem Setup the command line + +set CLASSPATH=%APP_HOME%\gradle\wrapper\gradle-wrapper.jar + +@rem Execute Gradle +"%JAVA_EXE%" %DEFAULT_JVM_OPTS% %JAVA_OPTS% %GRADLE_OPTS% "-Dorg.gradle.appname=%APP_BASE_NAME%" -classpath "%CLASSPATH%" org.gradle.wrapper.GradleWrapperMain %CMD_LINE_ARGS% + +:end +@rem End local scope for the variables with windows NT shell +if "%ERRORLEVEL%"=="0" goto mainEnd + +:fail +rem Set variable GRADLE_EXIT_CONSOLE if you need the _script_ return code instead of +rem the _cmd.exe /c_ return code! +if not "" == "%GRADLE_EXIT_CONSOLE%" exit 1 +exit /b 1 + +:mainEnd +if "%OS%"=="Windows_NT" endlocal + +:omega diff --git a/settings.gradle.kts b/settings.gradle.kts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b712c8 --- /dev/null +++ b/settings.gradle.kts @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ + +rootProject.name = "epidemics-sim" + diff --git a/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Behavior.kt b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Behavior.kt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..26442b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Behavior.kt @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +package ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics + +import org.apache.commons.math3.random.RandomGenerator + +interface Behavior { + /** + * Generate daily contact for given [subject] + */ + fun generateDailyContacts(generator: RandomGenerator, subject: Subject, date: Int): List +} + +object DefaultBehavior : Behavior { + + @OptIn(ExperimentalStdlibApi::class) + override fun generateDailyContacts( + generator: RandomGenerator, + subject: Subject, + date: Int + ): List = buildList { + subject.closeContacts.forEach { contact -> + if (generator.nextDouble() < 0.5) { + add(contact) + } + } + subject.otherContacts.forEach { contact -> + if (generator.nextDouble() < 0.1) { + add(contact) + } + } + } +} + + + diff --git a/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/DefaultEpidemicsModel.kt b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/DefaultEpidemicsModel.kt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97998e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/DefaultEpidemicsModel.kt @@ -0,0 +1,98 @@ +package ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics + +import org.apache.commons.math3.random.JDKRandomGenerator +import org.apache.commons.math3.random.RandomGenerator + +typealias Population = Map + + +interface EpidemicsModel { + fun generatePopulation(generator: RandomGenerator, size: Int = 1000): Population + fun propagateSubjectState(generator: RandomGenerator, subjectState: SubjectState, date: Int): SubjectState + fun propagate(generator: RandomGenerator, population: Population, date: Int): Population +} + +//TODO add model parametrization +object DefaultEpidemicsModel : EpidemicsModel { + + override fun generatePopulation(generator: RandomGenerator, size: Int): Population { + //TODO add custom distributions + return generatePopulation(generator, size, 3, 10) + } + + @OptIn(ExperimentalStdlibApi::class) + fun generatePopulation( + generator: RandomGenerator, + size: Int, + closeContactsNum: Int, + otherContactsNum: Int + ): Population { + return (0 until size).associateWith { subjectId -> + val closeContacts = buildList { + repeat(closeContactsNum) { + val id = generator.nextInt(size) + if (id != subjectId) { + add(id) + } + } + } + + val otherContacts = buildList { + repeat(otherContactsNum) { + val id = generator.nextInt(size) + if (id != subjectId) { + add(id) + } + } + } + + val subject = Subject(subjectId, closeContacts, otherContacts) + return@associateWith SubjectState(subject) + } + } + + override fun propagateSubjectState(generator: RandomGenerator, subjectState: SubjectState, date: Int): SubjectState { + when (subjectState.state) { + InfectionState.SUSCEPTIBLE, InfectionState.RECOVERED -> { + //do nothing + } + InfectionState.EXPOSED -> { + //TODO add custom distributions + if (date - subjectState.exposedDate!! >= 3) { + subjectState.infect(date) + } + } + InfectionState.INFECTIOUS -> { + if (generator.nextDouble() < 0.1) { + subjectState.recover(date) + } + } + } + return subjectState + } + + val behavior = DefaultBehavior + + override fun propagate(generator: RandomGenerator, population: Population, date: Int): Population { + //TODO check population health and change behavior + population.values.forEach { + propagateSubjectState(generator, it, date) + } + population.forEach { (_, subj) -> + val contacts: List = behavior.generateDailyContacts(generator, subj.subject, date) + contacts.forEach { contactId -> + val otherContact = population[contactId] + ?: error("Undefined subject with id $contactId") + + if (subj.state == InfectionState.INFECTIOUS && generator.nextDouble() < 0.25) { + otherContact.expose(date) + } + + if (otherContact.state == InfectionState.INFECTIOUS && generator.nextDouble() < 0.25) { + subj.expose(date) + } + } + } + return population + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Subject.kt b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Subject.kt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3d9503 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/Subject.kt @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +package ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics + +enum class InfectionState { + SUSCEPTIBLE, + EXPOSED, + INFECTIOUS, + RECOVERED +} + +class Subject( + val id: Int, + val closeContacts: List, + val otherContacts: List +) + +class SubjectState( + val subject: Subject +) { + var state: InfectionState = InfectionState.SUSCEPTIBLE + private set + + var exposedDate: Int? = null + private set + + var infectedDate: Int? = null + private set + + var recoveryDate: Int? = null + private set + + + fun expose(date: Int) { + if (state == InfectionState.SUSCEPTIBLE) { + state = InfectionState.EXPOSED + exposedDate = date + } + } + + fun infect(date: Int) { + if (state != InfectionState.EXPOSED) error("Expected 'EXPOSED' state") + state = InfectionState.INFECTIOUS + infectedDate = date + } + + fun recover(date: Int) { + if (state != InfectionState.INFECTIOUS) error("Expected 'EXPOSED' state") + state = InfectionState.RECOVERED + recoveryDate = date + } +} + diff --git a/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/main.kt b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/main.kt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1698f3a --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/main.kt @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +package ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics + +import org.apache.commons.math3.random.JDKRandomGenerator + +fun main() { + val generator = JDKRandomGenerator() + val population = DefaultEpidemicsModel.generatePopulation(generator) + var date = 0 + + val patientZero = generator.nextInt(population.size) + population[patientZero]?.expose(0) + + while ( + !population.values.all { + it.state == InfectionState.RECOVERED || it.state == InfectionState.SUSCEPTIBLE + } + ) { + date++ + DefaultEpidemicsModel.propagate(generator, population, date) + + } + + println("Epidemics ended at $date") + println(population.count { it.value.state == InfectionState.RECOVERED }) + population.show() +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/visualization.kt b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/visualization.kt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f485689 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/main/kotlin/ru/mipt/npm/sim/epidemics/visualization.kt @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +package ru.mipt.npm.sim.epidemics + +import kscience.plotly.* + + +data class PopulationState(val infected: Int, val recovered: Int) + +@OptIn(ExperimentalStdlibApi::class) +fun Population.collectData(): Map{ + val maxRecoveryDate = values.map{ it.recoveryDate ?: 0 }.max() ?: 1 + return (0..maxRecoveryDate).associateWith {date-> + val infected = values.count { + (it.exposedDate ?: Int.MAX_VALUE) <= date && it.recoveryDate?:Int.MAX_VALUE > date + } + val recovered = values.count { (it.recoveryDate ?: Int.MAX_VALUE) <= date } + PopulationState(infected,recovered) + } +} + + +fun Population.show(): Plot { + val data = collectData() + + val plot = Plotly.plot { + trace { + name = "infected" + x.set(data.keys.toIntArray()) + y.set(data.values.map { it.infected }) + } + trace{ + name = "recovered" + x.set(data.keys.toIntArray()) + y.set(data.values.map { it.recovered }) + } + } + + plot.makeFile() + + return plot +} \ No newline at end of file